Cop29: The trillion-dollar question that has left climate summit at an impasse

Negotiations for a trillion-dollar climate finance goal at Cop29 in Baku are mired in uncertainty as ministers scramble to resolve deep divisions with just three days remaining.

The New Collective Quantified Goal on Finance (NCQG), which will fund the climate disaster and prevention-related costs in developing countries, is the focal point of this year’s summit, but progress remains painstakingly slow.

A week and a half into the summit, the main aim of which is to set up the new fund which will replace the outdated $100 billion annual target, there is still no consensus on the size of the fund or its distribution mechanisms.

Developing nations, researchers, and civil society groups have repeatedly stressed that at least $1.3 trillion is needed annually to meet the escalating demands of adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage caused by climate crisis. However, developed countries have yet to agree on a number, according to campaigners who have been observing the closed door negotiations.

Meanwhile, the EU has informally floated a figure between $200 billion and $300 billion—far below what researchers say is required. India, which had previously supported the $1 trillion demand, has now proposed $600 billion as a possible middle ground.

Campaigners warn that anything below $1 trillion would fall alarmingly short. “The $100 billion target came from a world where the Paris Agreement wasn’t part of the game,” said Alejandra Lopez Carbajal, climate diplomacy director at Transformar, an EU-funded project which aims to boost uptake of the adaptations needed to battle the climate crisis. “Whatever the new goal is, it must reflect the climate urgency we face today.”

The NCQG is critical to fulfilling the Paris Agreement, which mandates that developed countries, responsible for the vast majority of greenhouse gases, provide financial resources to support climate action in developing nations.

“We arrived here in Baku after three years of negotiations on the [fund]. For the first week of Cop29, we had a very slow process to actually get a text that reflected the views of everyone, developed, developing countries, and the differences between groups,” Ms Lopez said. “By the end of last week, it felt like a maze, but things were moving.”

This week, the ministers from morning 200 countries took control of the process, organising high-level consultations.

A new draft test over the issue is expected on Wednesday. “Tomorrow morning, ministers will gather to negotiate. The text has to be ready. We are in the countdown for the end of Cop29,” Ms Lopez said.

Sometimes negotiators have spent days fighting over language in the text, like the debate over the use of “phase down” or “phase out” of fossil fuels in previous summits. UN climate chief Simon Stiell has told the delegates to “cut the theatrics” and focus on finalising a deal. He has attributed delays on the climate finance text to “bluffing, brinkmanship, and premeditated playbooks.”

Some developed countries have called for expanding the donor base for countries that are considered developed to boost the number contributing to the fund. But the demands of developing nations extend beyond simply increasing the size of the fund. Vulnerable countries are also calling for financing to come primarily in the form of grants rather than loans, which exacerbate the existing debt crisis in the Global South.

“After 14 meetings over three years, we’re still at a standstill,” said Harjeet Singh, Global Communications Director at campaign group the Fossil Fuels Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. “This isn’t a technical challenge — it’s a lack of political will.”

“The longer we delay, the closer we get to crossing irreversible thresholds. Developing countries have been far more bold and specific in their demands—now it’s time for rich nations to rise to the occasion,” Mr Singh added.