What will happen in tonight’s crucial Commons votes on Brexit?

Following Theresa May’s historic Brexit defeat a fortnight ago, MPs now have the opportunity to put their own plans to the Commons and shape the next step in Britain’s exit from the European Union.

More than a dozen amendments from various factions of MPs were put forward, and seven were selected by the Commons speaker, John Bercow. Votes are expected to take place from 7pm once the debate has concluded.

The majority of the amendments, if they win the backing of MPs, will not have the immediate force of law, but instead act as a signal to the prime minister of the kind of Brexit MPs are likely to accept.

There are a few crucial amendments that have focused minds in the past week.

The first is from Labour MP Yvette Cooper, whose cross-party motion seeks to prevent a no-deal scenario by giving MPs the power to request an extension of the Article 50 process if the prime minister fails to secure backing for her plans by the end of February.

As things stand, this amendment appears to have the best chance of passing, as Jeremy Corbyn said it has the support of Labour’s frontbench. Its passage would be significant, as it would give MPs – not the executive – the ability to control the UK’s exit date from the EU.

A second group of amendments are concerned with the backstop proposal – the EU’s insurance policy in the withdrawal agreement against a hard border in Ireland, which is despised by Brexiteer MPs.

One has been tabled by the Conservative MP Sir Graham Brady, who chairs the influential 1922 Committee of the party’s backbenchers in Westminster. His plan requires the backstop to be replaced with “alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border”.

It is hoped that if the government backs this move and it eventually passes the Commons on Tuesday, it would give the prime minister a mandate to return to Brussels and request changes.

A third amendment – from the senior Labour MP Hilary Benn – calls for MPs to be given “indicative votes” in the coming weeks. This would see the Commons vote on a series of Brexit options, such as a second referendum, to see if there is a majority to break the current deadlock.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility in Westminster’s current febrile atmosphere, however, that all of the amednments will fail receive the backing of a majority of MPs. In this situation, the deadlock over Brexit will continue to reign.

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