Has Bangladesh’s revolution been a success?

The 6 August marked a new beginning for more than 170 million people in Bangladesh, as the authoritarian government of prime minister Sheikh Hasina was finally toppled after weeks of bloody protests that saw hundreds killed.

The protests began as a student movement against plans to reform recruitment for public sector jobs, but quickly snowballed into a popular revolution against the Awami League government. Hasina fled to India on a helicopter as an angry mob marched towards the presidential palace.

Her ousting created a power vacuum in Bangladesh that was quickly filled by a new caretaker government, as Hasina critic and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus returned to the country to be named interim leader. The 84-year-old microfinance pioneer faced an almighty task – restoring democracy to a nation scarred by violence and whose economy was floundering.

Almost five months on and the streets of Dhaka have come alive, schools and colleges have reopened, a police force which refused to work in the days immediately after Hasina’s ouster has returned, and remittances from abroad – worth around 5 per cent of GDP – have stabilised.

But Bangladesh is still on edge, with growing discontent over the Yunus government’s failure to solve the economic crisis and international concern over attacks on religious minority groups. The UK government this month revised its travel guidance,cautioning that “terrorists are likely to try to carry out attacks” in Bangladesh as it advised citizens against “all but essential travel”.

For better or worse, Hasina’s ouster was necessary, says Rafiqul Islam, a 19-year-old Dhaka University student who was one of the thousands who took part in demonstrations that led to her downfall. He and others braved confrontations with a police force ordered to shoot at protesters to quash the unrest.

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It was the rising death toll among students, and the security forces’ eventual refusal to carry out those orders, that made it clear Hasina could not continue. The Yunus administration revealed in November that about 1,500 people died in protests and as many as 3,500 may have been forcibly abducted during Hasina’s rule.

Islam says he has more faith in the interim government to turn the country’s fortunes around than the 15-year Hasina regime capable of such brutality, but admits he is disappointed at the Yunus administration’s handling of the economy and the rising tensions with neighbour India, a strong ally that played a pivotal role in Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971.

“We knew it would not be a miraculous change of situation in Bangladesh but it is not getting any better,” he tells The Independent. “We need an elected government.”

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Islam is pointing to the fact that the Yunus administration has no legal grounds for existing – Hasina amended the constitution in 2011 to remove a provision for interim governments. It is an irregularity backed by the army and the people’s faith, Islam says, and once that initial optimism fades the country could again plunge into chaos.

Sehnaz Khan, a resident of Chittagong city, which has witnessed a spate of clashes between religious groups in recent weeks, hopes the sacrifice of hundreds of protesters will not be in vain. She is excited for the future but says soaring food prices and rampant electricity cuts have added another worry for her family of four, who survive on her income.

“If [we don’t get] a better life, we want our old lives to be returned to us,” the primary school teacher says. “I used to able to feed my entire family three meals a day. Given the cost of rice and other necessities, we barely make it to two meals.”

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Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves fell by $1.23bn to $18.61bn by the end of November this year, according to the central bank. The country recorded the highest inflation in four months in November at 11.38 per cent, driven mainly by higher food prices, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics found.

Hailed as the fastest-growing economy in South Asia in recent years, Bangladesh’s development success story was called into question after a white paper concluded that the Hasina administration massaged GDP figures. Researchers put GDP growth at around 3 per cent in 2018-2019, compared to the 7 per cent claimed in official statistics.

Beyond economic troubles, critics say Yunus has failed to set out a timeline for holding new elections and not done enough to protect either religious minorities in the Muslim-majority nation, or members of the Awami League.

The targeted violence has driven hundreds of Bangladeshi minorities and members of the former ruling party out of the country, with many of them taking refuge in India. The authorities say there have been 88 cases of violence against minorities in the five months since Hasina’s ousting, though they have received widespread coverage, particularly in neighbouring India.

Yunus has described this as “exaggerated propaganda” from a country whose government had closely backed Hasina for many years.

“The transitional government certainly could have done more in the days and weeks after Ms Hasina’s ouster to establish order and provide security for Hindu communities. The violence that we have seen hardly came as a surprise,” Dr Ian Hall, professor at Brisbane’s Griffith University, tells The Independent.

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Political parties including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by former prime minister Khaleda Zia have been pressing the interim government for a clear plan to hold a national election.

Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman in September told Reuters that democracy should be restored within a year to a year-and-a-half, but urged patience.

Yunus this month insisted that polls can be held only after electoral reforms are put in place. He suggested elections could be arranged in the first half of 2026.

“It’s been four months since the prime minister’s ouster but Yunus’s promise of polls being held within six months of the takeover has already been exposed as hollow,” says a senior Awami League member hiding in India, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “He seems to be in no hurry to let go of the power. He is enjoying it. He always wanted to have a political party but failed, so now this is his moment to shine,” the former minister adds.

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Hasina’s son Sajeeb Wazed Joy, who is based in the US, has given interviews to Indian media saying his mother will return to Bangladesh “the moment the interim government decides to hold an election”.

Yunus has said “the past is gone”, but he has also responded to public anger against Hasina by cancelling national holidays honouring her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, one of the nation’s founding leaders. Last month his portrait was removed from the Bangladesh president’s office, and new currency notes have been issued with his likeness removed.

Some Bangladeshis say there has been too much focus on righting past wrongs. “These are misplaced priorities,” says Raju Poddar, a clothing shop owner in Dhaka. “No one wants to remember the brutal past but the government needs to focus on making the present peaceful. The never-ending protests, the attacks need to stop.”

The success of Bangladesh’s revolution and the Yunus government that has followed will be judged first and foremost on whether lives for ordinary Bangladeshis get better – but there are still calls for accountability for a regime that systematically repressed opposing voices over 15 years.

Another point of contention with India is the Yunus government’s formal calls for Hasina to be extradited back to Bangladesh to face trial for alleged crimes against humanity committed during the protests. India has confirmed it received the request but refused to comment further.

“Yunus has been quite measured with New Delhi,” Dr Hall says. “It is time for New Delhi to reevaluate its tendency to take sides in the domestic politics of its neighbours.”