Taiwan reveals timeline for potential full-scale China invasion

Taiwan has identified 2027 as a potential timeframe for a full-scale Chinese invasion in its largest annual defence drills amid worsening tensions in cross-strait ties.

Taiwan claims the timeline aligns with the modernisation goals set by Chinese president Xi Jinping, who has repeatedly vowed to achieve "reunification" with Taiwan, by force if necessary.

The warning of a potential Chinese invasion in the next two years came amid Taiwan’s ongoing five-day "rapid response exercise" and its start coincided with China dispatching 59 military planes and other warships to areas near Taiwan.

China dubbed the surprise exercise as a "punishment" for Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te's continued promotion of "separatism".

The Taiwanese defence ministry unveiled the timeline in documents released on Tuesday when lawmakers and officials were briefed on the upcoming largest war games simulating an attack by the Chinese military on the annual calendar of Taiwanese forces.

The Han Kuang exercise conducted every summer to practice defence against Chinese invasion has been doubled in length to 10 days, highlighting increased military preparedness this year.

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The 2025 exercises will be held from 9-10 July.

Submitting a report to parliament on Wednesday, the ministry said this year's scenarios would focus on grey-zone harassment designed to test and exhaust Taiwan's armed forces or any "possible actions of the Chinese Communist military's invasion of Taiwan in 2027".

"For the People's Liberation Army, turning drills into an attack doesn't take as much time as we imagined in the past," defence minister Wellington Koo told parliament in answer to lawmakers' questions.

"(We) must be able to gather crucial signs of alerts and prepare for the worst from the enemy."

The ministry's rapid-response exercise would be based on its intelligence and threat assessments, Mr Koo added.

Taiwan held a five-day "rapid response exercise" from Monday which the defence ministry said was to boost "readiness and response capabilities".

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This drill will be held twice a year at "unscheduled" times based on their assessment of "the intensity" of China's military exercises, Mr Koo told parliament.

"This is part of realistic combat training, sharpening commanders' decision-making and unit capabilities," Mr Koo said.

Beijing on Monday warned Taiwan against "its own destruction" as 54 Chinese military planes and drones were spotted near the island.

Taiwan's security officials said Beijing is attempting to normalise drills near Taiwan as it has been carrying out such patrols near the island every 7-10 days on average.

It came after President Lai labelled China a "foreign hostile force" and said Taipei had "no choice but to take even more proactive measures".

He then announced a series of new national security measures, including the reinstatement of a military court system and stricter residency criteria for individuals from China, Hong Kong, and Macau.

Mr Lai said Taiwan would restore the military court system to "allow military judges to return to the frontline... to handle criminal cases involving active-duty military personnel" in a bid to stop China from attacking the island.

Chinese authorities responded by calling Mr Lai a "destroyer of cross-straits peace" and a "creator of crisis".