Taiwan has stood up to China at the ballot box – how Beijing responds will be key

The rally was colourful and loud, with a packed, predominantly young crowd and a highly popular hip-hop band. Lai Ching-te, the presidential election candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was being lauded as the man who would lead Taiwan into the international community and away from China.

Many of those present spoke of their concerns about the economy, social divisions and official corruption. But an existential issue could not be ignored. Discussions continually returned to how Beijing would react to Lai, someone who is loathed by the Chinese government as a “separatist troublemaker”, winning at the polls.

The danger of Beijing trying to reunite Taiwan with the mainland by force is a fact of daily life on Matsu Island, nine miles from China, which would be in the “kill zone” – ie the first line of defence against an invasion.

Two days after the Taipei rally, Lee, a 30-year-old army captain, spoke of constant armed drills to prepare for combat. “It will not be a surprise if China attacks us; if it happens, it happens. I don’t want to die, my friends don’t want to die. But you need to accept death if you are a soldier,” he said.

Lee’s father lives in Shanghai, and he did not want his full name published as it could put his safety at risk. Family ties, he wanted to stress, would not affect his duty to defend his country from a threat he could see from Chinese warships in the Taiwan Strait.

An avid follower of international news, Lee reflected on what has happened in Ukraine: “Once that war started, I had a feeling we would be next. China could follow the example of Russia. The election we are having is so important. The possibility is that China will not accept a result it would not like.”

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This is indeed the result that has emerged, with Lai taking more than 40 per cent of the vote to defeat Hou Yu-ih, the candidate for the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), which is more malleable to Beijing, and a third candidate, Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).

Lai’s victory, with a high – 72 per cent – turnout of voters, has led to widespread approbation among Western states and Taiwan’s democratic neighbours.

US president Joe Biden confirmed that a delegation would be sent to Taipei next week. The US Department of State said: “The Taiwanese people have once again demonstrated the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process.” In London, foreign secretary David Cameron commented that the result was a “testament to Taiwan’s vibrant democracy”. In Tokyo, the foreign minister, Yoko Kamikawa, stressed: “Taiwan shares fundamental values and is a crucial partner and important friend of Japan.”

Beijing, which maintains that Taiwan is part of China, was swift to deplore what it called “foreign interference”. The Chinese government announced that it had made “solemn representation” to the US state department, accusing the US of straying beyond “unofficial cultural and economic ties with Taiwan”. China said it “firmly opposes the wrong practices of the British side”, which it insists must “stop any words or deeds that interfere in China’s internal affairs”. Japan was admonished for its “serious interference in China’s internal affairs”.

As for the new government in Taipei, Chen Binhua, a senior official in China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, which has been at the forefront of attempts, via propaganda and subversion, to undermine the struggle for Taiwanese independence, declared: “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan.”

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Nothing, he said, can stop the “inevitable trend” of annexation. “This election cannot change the basic pattern and direction of development of cross-strait relations that the motherland will eventually be reunified,” he added.

Taking back Taiwan is one of the most important pledges of the Chinese Communist Party. China’s president, Xi Jinping, has instructed the country’s armed forces to prepare for action to take place by 2027. China’s annual defence budget of $224bn (£176bn) is 12 times that of Taiwan.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) stated on Friday, the day before the election, that it was on “high alert” and ready to “smash” plots to organise Taiwanese independence, although it is yet to make any pronouncements following the result.

In reality, a Chinese military operation would be anything but easy. The Ukraine war has become analogous with any prospective conflict over Taiwan. In Ukraine, the inability of the Russians to capture Kyiv, after crossing the Belarus border 140 miles away, showed the difficulties faced by invading forces. An amphibious assault across 120 miles of open sea – where naval vessels would be vulnerable to attack – would bring significant additional challenges.

Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, has acknowledged: “We are taking the Chinese military threat very seriously ... I think 2027 is the year we need to worry about.”

But he added that Taiwan is preparing its defences, and thanked the “solidarity shown by friendly, allied powers whose navies have been carrying out freedom of navigation voyages on international waters in this region”.

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The US, as well as joining the UK, France and other allied powers in sending ships through nearby waters, has stepped up its weapons supplies to Taiwan. Unlike the question of support for Ukraine, over which the Biden administration has faced growing criticism from Republicans, there is general bipartisan support in Congress for rapidly bolstering the military support made available to Taiwan.

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, has warned Taiwan’s foreign supporters that “those who play with fire on Taiwan will eventually get themselves burnt”. But Beijing does not appear to be in a position at present to undertake any large-scale military action.

However, Beijing’s actions on other fronts, with its deployment of tactics such as disinformation, cyberattacks, and the suborning of politicians and officials, are expected to increase following the election result. There may also be a stepping up of economic and diplomatic pressure, by luring away more of the handful of small states that recognise Taiwan as separate from China, and by sanctioning Taiwanese companies and products.

After his victory, Lai promised to protect his country and continue building its defences. “Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts by external forces to influence these elections. We are determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from mainland China,” he said.

The new government does face the prospect of having to work with a parliament, the Yuan, in which it has lost its majority. KMT leader Hou promised battles ahead, telling his supporters after the party’s defeat: “I must turn this discouragement into determination to oversee the DPP. I hope they do not fail to live up to achieve the people’s expectations.”

Overall, the election result was a clear statement from the people of Taiwan that they want to distance themselves from China’s embrace and avoid the possible risk of what happened to Hong Kong. What Beijing does in response will be of serious consequence not just to the island nation, but to the region and beyond, at a time of great international tension and turbulence.