Leading Article: Kashmir must not turn into another Kosovo

INDIA AND Pakistan are at loggerheads again over Kashmir. Indian aeroplanes are attacking "infiltrators" (from the Pakistani side of the border) and Pakistan alleges that bombs have fallen on its territory. Given the annual return of these crises we might be tempted to ignore them, on the basis that relations between India and Pakistan never get much better or much worse. That would be a mistake. The present catastrophe in Kosovo teaches us that inter-ethnic conflicts tend to get worse the longer they are left. And, in a situation where both sides have nuclear weapons, "worse" could be bad indeed.

Pakistan bases its claim to the Kashmir valley on its Muslim population and its border with Muslim Pakistan. India's claim rests on the decision by the ruler of Kashmir to join the Indian Union in 1947, and the fact that his kingdom, which became the state of Jammu and Kashmir, comprises many Hindus and some Buddhists as well as Muslims.

Since the last war, in 1965, Pakistan's status as a client of America and India's looser relationship with the Soviet Union have ensured that the superpowers have not allowed conflicts to escalate. Since the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan, the situation has become far more fluid. Pakistan, now awash with guns and heroin, recently barely escaped being put on a list of terrorist states by the US State Department. The country's politics lurches towards extremism in the name of Islam. Its army will not stanch the flow of arms into Kashmir. Meanwhile, multi-ethnic India is petrified by separatists and is still ruled by militaristic nationalists. India's army has turned the peace-loving Kashmiris against India by its violent suppression of insurgency. Either country could be tempted into an adventure that could conceivably bring in China (which occupies an area of northern Kashmir).

All the peoples of Kashmir (including those in the Pakistani zone) should be asked what future they want: the status quo, union with Pakistan, or independence. This question, however, cannot be posed until fair elections are possible. The fighting must stop and paramilitary weapons must be silenced. India and Pakistan could bring that day closer by recognising that in today's world no one will be able to prevent them from mutually assured destruction.