Oscar nominations 2019 predictions: From A Star is Born to Roma

We’re inching closer and closer to the Academy Awards, otherwise known as the cinephile’s Super Bowl. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, 22 January; the ceremony itself is set for roughly a month later, on Sunday, 24 February at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre. Here are our predictions for how the nominations will pan out in the main six categories: Best Film, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor.

The Oscars have the unique ability to nominate up to 10 films for Best Picture, over the traditional five entries – a format change first put in place a decade ago. The awards race has already narrowed itself down to two fierce competitors – Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma and Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born – but there will be plenty of room for other favourites here. Green Book, Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk, and The Favourite are all sure to pick up nominations.

However, 2018 offered a stellar slate of films directed by women, all boasting the right amount of prestige for awards season, among them Lynne Ramsay’s You Were Never Really Here, Chloé Zhao’s The Rider, and Debra Granik’s Leave No Trace. At this point, it would be an embarrassing move, quite frankly, for the Academy to reveal a slate of 10 films all directed by men.

Most likely to make the cut is Marielle Heller’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?, a beautifully orchestrated character piece that will almost certainly land Richard E Grant a Supporting Actor nomination. Unfortunately, it’s likely to lose out to First Man. Damien Chazelle’s La La Land follow-up is an early frontrunner that’s since fallen by the wayside, but it still has clout to guarantee a few nominations. Although the Academy hasn’t filled the full 10 nominations since 2010, usually opting for a selection of nine, the list below is of the top 10 contenders in the category.

Roma
A Star is Born
Green Book
Bohemian Rhapsody
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
First Man

Dark Horse: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Since Cuarón is heavily favoured to win in this category, any other nominee for Best Director will essentially earn the honour of losing to him. Cooper will almost certainly make an appearance, alongside Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman and Adam McKay for Vice. While The Favourite has fared well this awards season, its director Yorgos Lanthimos didn’t receive nominations at either the Golden Globes or the Directors Guild Awards, and there's certainly a feeling that voters view the film as belonging more to its stars than its director.

Although the expanded list of nominations for Best Picture almost guarantees Black Panther a spot, the real test of its awards appeal will be here. The odds aren’t particularly in Ryan Coogler’s favour, since he lost out both at the Golden Globes and the Directors Guild Awards, but we could be in for a surprise. Last year’s debacle, when the Academy introduced a Popular Film category and then swiftly recalled it, may have left a lasting impression in voters’s minds, meaning 2019 could see a definitive statement made that the Academy is eager to embrace the quality blockbuster.

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice

Dark Horse: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

This category may turn out to be the most hotly contested of the night. Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman have all been picking up trophies for the respective performances in The Wife, A Star is Born, and The Favourite. The Critics Choice Awards even struggled to even narrow it down to one person, sharing the awards between both Gaga and Close. Melissa McCarthy is also very likely to see a nomination here for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, while the last slot will be a contest between Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns and Nicole Kidman for Destroyer.

The frustrating truth of awards season is, of course, that anyone who isn’t already an established name or a massively publicised Hollywood breakout rarely gets a look-in. The result is that one of the year’s most phenomenal performances, Yalitza Aparicio in Roma, will probably end up going without recognition, even when Roma may sweep the awards elsewhere.

Glenn Close, The Wife,
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Dark Horse: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

The odds are less clear-cut when it comes to Best Actor, and there’s a chance the winner here may be partially determined by the mood of the rest of the awards race. Vice’s Christian Bale, Bohemian Rhapsody’s Rami Malek, and A Star is Born’s Bradley Cooper form a trio of strong contenders.

However, their chances could depend on how favourably the Academy looks on their respective films. If A Star is Born really ends up being Roma’s biggest competition, Cooper’s chances could go up. If Bohemian Rhapsody is snubbed in other categories, Malek’s chances could go down. Green Book’s Viggo Mortensen is also an easy bet here.

The last spot, however, could be a little more unpredictable. BlacKkKlansman’s John David Washington is the safer choice, but there’s a question of whether First Reformed’s Ethan Hawke will make a surprise appearance here. The film, at large, hasn’t fared particularly well this awards season, despite the massive critical acclaim it received on release; there’s a good chance its indie credentials (it was distributed by A24) have meant the film has been overlooked by voters.

Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Dark Horse: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Anyone who’s seen The Favourite will be surprised to see Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone both pitched here as supporting roles, since the film is quite obviously a three-hander. Call it another case of “category fraud”: studios have increasingly treated the split between lead and supporting as a strategic game, and there’s a clear hope here that The Favourite will end up with wins in two acting categories as opposed to one. However, Stone and Weisz will face stiff competition from If Beale Street Could Talk’s Regina King, with Vice’s Amy Adams and First Man’s Claire Foy also expected to receive nominations.

Thomasin McKenzie should be somewhere on this list, since her performance in Leave No Trace has been praised across the board. Yet, like Aparicio, McKenzie suffers a combination of not being a recognisable name, not having had a major publicity push, and appearing in a fairly low-budget independent production.

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man

Dark Horse: Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Mahershala Ali’s Golden Globe win for Green Book has secured him as the favourite in this category, but there’s some competition still from both BlacKkKlansman’s Adam Driver and Can You Ever Forgive Me?’s Richard E Grant. Sam Rockwell is expected to appear for Vice, although his work has been overshadowed by Bale’s formidable Dick Cheney impression. Timothée Chalamet, meanwhile, will likely continue his Hollywood ascendency and land a nomination for Beautiful Boy.

However, one of the strangest exclusions from this year’s awards race is Sam Elliott for A Star is Born. The actor was an early favourite to win, but has dropped off the radar in recent months without much rhyme or reason, perhaps overshadowed in the film’s publicity campaign by the central pairing of Gaga and Cooper.

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, Black KkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Dark Horse: Sam Elliott, A Star is Born