Oscars 2024 predictions: Who will win and who should win at this year’s Academy Awards
Will it be an ‘Oppenheimer’ sweep? Or could ‘Poor Things’ prove to be the one to beat? Adam White has looked over the major categories for this weekend’s Academy Awards to try and figure them out
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Your support makes all the difference.A sure sign that the 2024 Oscar nominees are pretty good is that the civil wars brewing between their fans are sillier than usual. Twitter has been anticipating a battle between supporters of Best Actress rivals Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone – but they’re both mutually brilliant, so who cares? People raged over Greta Gerwig’s snubbing from the Best Director category – but the five actual nominees are sort of extraordinary, so what’s the issue? Yes, it’s a bit uninteresting if Robert Downey Jr prevails in Best Supporting Actor – but what kind of monster would take issue with Robert Downey Jr finally getting an Academy Award?
For the most part – or, more specifically, if you pretend Nyad doesn’t exist – this year’s nominations are an embarrassment of riches. Even the more middle-range films making appearances here, such as Barbie or Maestro, at least feature dazzling technical prowess or a handful of strong performances.
It means this Sunday’s Oscars should be a whole lot of fun, rewarding deserving people and what was, overall, a surprisingly great year in film.
Ahead of the ceremony, we’ve cast an eye over the major categories and decided who will win, who should win, and who really should have got a look in.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Will win Oppenheimer
Should win Oppenheimer
Shoulda got a look in May December
In any other year, at least six of these movies would have been deserving – and probable – Best Picture winners. I’m not sure it’s quite as open a field as it may seem, though. Since it made an absolute tonne of money, and in a way that remains slightly flabbergasting, Oppenheimer feels like a tailor-made victor here. As for a missing movie that should have been invited to the party, I do think the absence of May December – Todd Haynes’s biting age-gap melodrama – is a bit perplexing.
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Will win Christopher Nolan
Should win Christopher Nolan
Shoulda got a look in Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
This was seemingly a very, very tight category, with each of the five directors richly deserving of their nomination. Each would be worthy of a win here, too, if only for their careers as a whole. But Christopher Nolan seems set to take it home, both because Oppenheimer is a masterpiece, and because his lack of previous Best Director wins feels so confusing. As for someone I’d have liked to see here, why not The Holdovers’ Alexander Payne? With its winter scenery and pretty Christmas lights, it was certainly the most beautiful film of last year at the very least.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Will win Cillian Murphy
Should win Cillian Murphy
Shoulda got a look in Jason Schwartzman, Asteroid City
Paul Giamatti could end up the vaguely surprising winner of this category – and it would be a great win! – but this feels like Cillian Murphy’s to lose. It’s also a sign of the overall quality of these nominees that the least likely to scoop the prize are the men leading Maestro and Rustin, two more traditional Oscar-baiting biopics. Either performance could have easily been swapped out for Jason Schwartzman’s lovely tragicomic turn in Wes Anderson’s quirky sci-fi Asteroid City, a great film that has inexplicably been completely forgotten this awards season.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Will win Lily Gladstone
Should win Sandra Hüller
Shoulda got a look in Natalie Portman, May December
This will be one of the night’s biggest battles, with no one particularly sure whether Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone will prove victorious. I’m inclined to believe Gladstone will prosper, but – if I’m being totally honest – neither performance can hold a candle to Sandra Hüller’s chilly, brilliantly inscrutable work as a murder suspect in Anatomy of a Fall. And while it’s a bit of a cliché to call out Annette Bening’s nomination here, wouldn’t it have been nice to see Natalie Portman’s (maybe career-best?) performance in May December be included instead?
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Will win Robert Downey Jr
Should win Robert De Niro
Shoulda got a look in Many, many young men
The total wipeout of Robert De Niro from awards wins this season is sort of wacky – his performance as one of the slipperiest, most unambiguously ghastly figures behind the Osage Nation killings is among the best of the year. It’s certainly the best in this category. That said, Downey Jr is a sure thing. Missing here are an abundance of young men – a demographic to which the Oscars seem perpetually allergic. May December’s stunted husband Charles Melton, Anatomy of a Fall’s blind witness Milo Machado-Graner and – whisper it – Priscilla’s Jacob Elordi, all warranted some attention here. And where art thou Dominic Sessa of The Holdovers? Practically everyone else involved in the film has drawn accolades this season – why not him?
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Will win Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should win Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Shoulda got a look in Many, many other women
This category is the only slight disappointment this year, with the Foster and Ferrara nominations particularly egregious. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who has been hoovering up wins across awards season so far, will comfortably and deservedly take home the prize – but you wish she had a stronger line-up to compete against. The last year was stacked with perfect Best Supporting Actress contenders, too, from Penelope Cruz’s electric work in Ferrari to Julianne Moore’s broad and strange performance in May December. Then there’s Rachel McAdams being divine in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, and – because I love a curveball – what about Patti LuPone in Beau Is Afraid? A calamity of a movie, sure, but what a powerhouse of a performance.
Best Original Screenplay
Samy Burch, May December (story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik)
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Arthur Harari and Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Celine Song, Past Lives
Will win Anatomy of a Fall
Should win Anatomy of a Fall
Shoulda got a look in Emma Seligman and Rachel Sennott, Bottoms
I sense this will be a face-off between Anatomy of a Fall and The Holdovers, two films that proved the industry is still interested in sharp, engrossing character studies. As for a winner? I feel like Anatomy of a Fall may have the edge. A film I’d have loved to see here is the Ayo Edebiri/Rachel Sennott teen movie Bottoms. With its cartoon violence, unapologetic queerness and unhinged female leads, this was a nutty, chaotic spin on the high school comedy. A Best Original Screenplay nod would, of course, never have actually happened, but we can dream, can’t we?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Will win Oppenheimer
Should win The Zone of Interest
Shoulda got a look in Kelly Fremon Craig, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
While this category is probably the best chance Barbie has at an award outside the technical categories, I think it’s likely going to go to Nolan. That said, it would be gratifying to see Jonathan Glazer scoop the prize for his work on The Zone of Interest, crafting a script that radically reshapes and reimagines its Martin Amis source material. And while I may be guilty of ringing the bell for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret at every possible opportunity, wouldn’t it have been lovely to see Kelly Fremon Craig’s gorgeous adaptation of Judy Blume’s novel get a nod here?
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