Golden Globes 2023: Who will win and who should win

Yes, the Golden Globes were boycotted by most of Hollywood last year. Yes, Tom Cruise handed back all of his past Globes in protest. Yes, no one can quite agree what the point of the Golden Globes even is. Still, 12 months after the annual awards show went untelevised for the first time in its 77-year history, they are back! For… reasons!

Hosted by Jerrod Carmichael, the beleaguered ceremony returns tonight with numerous clouds hanging over it. Cruise, he of the one-man protest, isn’t nominated for Top Gun: Maverick, despite seeming to be a shoo-in. Brendan Fraser, who has long alleged that he was sexually assaulted by the former president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – the organisation behind the show – isn’t going to attend despite being nominated. (Philip Berk, the former president in question, has denied the allegation.) And no one’s really talking about the very valid criticisms of the Association’s past lack of Black members, nor its history of apparent corruption when it comes to exchanging gifts and freebies for awards.

So here we are: an awards show once considered merely a throwaway diversion, now considered just murky and unpleasant. It remains to be seen whether the ceremony’s nominees will show up, or whether winning a Golden Globe is more of a poisoned chalice now than something to celebrate.

While those questions linger, we’ve determined – of the major categories – who’s most likely to win on the night and who, if the Globes were arbiters of great work rather than a vaguely grim enterprise, should truly be taking home trophies.

The Golden Globes are broadcast live in the US at 8pm (1am GMT) on NBC on Tuesday 10 January.

Find live updates from the ceremony here and the updated list of winners as they’re announced here.

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Will Win Avatar: The Way of Water

It is likely that this will be a battle of box office, with the two biggest hits of 2022 fighting it out for the win. But considering Tom Cruise missed out on a Best Actor nod – and his apathy for the Globes in general – it feels like it’s Avatar’s to lose.

Should Win Top Gun: Maverick

Because I refuse to live in a world where James Cameron is king.

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Triangle of Sadness

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Will Win Everything Everywhere All at Once

A tiny – if proud! – minority of people found this surprise smash confused, repetitive and unbearably long despite its undeniably brilliant central performance from Michelle Yeoh. But, if we’re being honest, the rest of this category may as well not show up.

Should Win The Banshees of Inisherin

Not confused, repetitive or unbearably long, this incredibly funny yet unexpectedly profound meditation on masculinity, community, friendship and ambition is one of the best films of the year.

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James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrman, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Will Win Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This feels slightly inevitable. A plus, though? It’d be nice to see the scrappy upstart beat out a category of industry veterans at least.

Should Win Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Throwing awards at Steven Spielberg feels like a cliché at this point, but this semi-autobiographical drama is genuinely worthy of such plaudits. It’s a thing of wonder.

Austin Butler, Elvis

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Hugh Jackman, The Son

Bill Nighy, Living

Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Will Win and Should Win Austin Butler, Elvis

Brendan Fraser’s presence here feels slightly cruel considering his history with the Globes, and you can’t imagine the organisation shining a glaring spotlight on itself by giving him the award, either. So there leaves Butler – a great newcomer in a great movie. He’s no Tom Cruise, but he’s not even here! For shame!

Diego Calva, Babylon

Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Adam Driver, White Noise

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Will Win and Should Win Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Farrell, a well-liked actor who’s never had a truly awards-magnetised role despite dozens of acclaimed performances, pretty much has this category sewn up. It’ll be much deserved.

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Cate Blanchett, Tár

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Will Win Ana de Armas, Blonde

The Globes clearly like De Armas – she was nominated in 2020 for Knives Out – and winning for such a contentious, largely disliked movie feels like the kind of curveball this particular awards show specialises in. In fairness, she’s at least really, really great in Blonde. But imagine the think-pieces if she takes it!

Should Win Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Playing (sort of) Steven Spielberg’s mother, Williams dares to go big here, but manages to find the chaotic, restless humanity in an outsized character. She gives one of the best performances of the year.

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Anya Taylor Joy, The Menu

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win and Should Win Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Both as a tribute to Yeoh’s long career and a celebration of her sterling work in Everything Everywhere All at Once, this would be a much-deserved win. However, shoutouts are warranted for Manville and Thompson – two British legends doing brilliant, deceptively complex work in their respective star vehicles here.

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Will Win Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

The closest thing all of this awards season has to a widespread shoo-in, a win for Ke Huy Quan echoes the probable win for Yeoh (though she has greater competition in her category). A former child star – best known for his roles as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies – whose career unfairly slowed down once he hit early adulthood, Quan has long deserved a comeback. That he does such fine work here is a bonus.

Should Win Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Still! Keoghan is so heartbreakingly good in The Banshees of Inisherin that it feels a shame to see his work become a bit of an awards season also-ran.

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Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Will Win Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is one of the tougher categories to predict this year. You have two Hollywood legends who could cancel each other out, one ascendant star, one under-the-radar character actor, and one leading lady who absolutely should not be in a supporting-role category. Let’s just go with Curtis.

Should Win Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Apologies for all the Banshees stumping here, but Condon’s work in it – as Colin Farrell’s headstrong sister and one of the few people in the film who truly dreams of more from life – is spectacular. You want to immediately dive into the rest of her (vast, if often overlooked) filmography five minutes after it ends.

Jeff Bridges, The Old Man

Kevin Costner, Yellowstone

Diego Luna, Andor

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Adam Scott, Severance

Will win Bob Odenkirk

Should win Adam Scott

There’s a lot of love around for Odenkirk right now, what with the Breaking Bad spin-off Better Call Saul airing its last-ever episode in the summer (it was given five stars by The Independent’s Louis Chilton). But Adam Scott’s performance as a grieving husband in Severance was beautiful and strange and definitely award-worthy.

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Donald Glover, Atlanta

Bill Hader, Barry

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Will win Jeremy Allen White

Should win Donald Glover

There was a lot of hype about The Bear and White’s performance as a chef running his family’s Italian beef sandwich shop. But actually the Brits did chaotic cooking much better in Boiling Point. This award should really go to Donald Glover, whose show – which he once described as “Twin Peaks with rappers” – is a smart, surreal masterpiece that doesn’t get enough attention this side of the Atlantic.

Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon

Laura Linney, Ozark

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily

Zendaya, Euphoria

Will win Zendaya

Should win Laura Linney

Zendaya’s won two Emmys for Euphoria. She knows she’s great in it. We all do by now. But Laura Linney’s not won any major awards for her toxic matriarch in Ozark, which aired its fourth and final season last year. So I’m rooting for her this time.

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Jenna Ortega, Wednesday

Jean Smart, Hacks

Will win and should win Quinta Brunson

The odds are on Quinta Brunson winning for her peppy performance as a Philadelphia school teacher in this fantastic, singular mockumentary, which she also created. And so they should be. I’d also love to see Jean Smart win for Hacks, but she was awarded for her role by the Globes last year… not that anyone was watching.

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Black Bird

Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Pam and Tommy

The Dropout

The White Lotus: Sicily

Will win and should win The White Lotus: Sicily

The Sicily edition of The White Lotus contained more easter eggs and generated more fan theories than many sci-fi or superhero shows this past year – pretty rare for a wealth satire. It’s been the talk of the town all autumn and it should be a sure thing for Best Limited Series.

Better Call Saul

The Crown

House of the Dragon

Ozark

Severance

Will Win and Should Win Severance

While this category marks the final time the Globes could throw awards at Ozark and Better Call Saul – both of which ended their runs last year – it feels like the night’s big prize will go to a newbie. Severance, even more than Game of Thrones prequel House of the Dragon, was one of the surprise hits of 2022, and has quickly become Apple TV+’s dramatic crown jewel. It’ll likely take the win.

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

Hacks

Only Murders in the Building

Wednesday

Will win The Bear

Should win Hacks

Sharp-tongued comedy Hacks and its star pairing Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder deserve all the awards they can get, but it looks like this smart show might be pipped to the post by The Bear – the sleeper hit of last summer.

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F Murray Abraham, The White Lotus

Domhnall Gleeson, The Patient

Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird

Richard Jenkins, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Seth Rogen, Pam and Tommy

Will win Paul Walter Hauser

Should win F Murray Abraham

Abraham’s flatulent, horny grandpa was a stand-out in the second season of The White Lotus. But it seems like this award might go to Hauser, who played suspected serial killer Larry Hall in Black Bird.

John Lithgow, The Old Man

Jonathan Pryce, The Crown

John Turturro, Severance

Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary

Henry Winkler, Barry

Will win and should win John Turturro

John Turturro melted hearts as Lumon employee in Severance, and the romantic storyline he shared with Christopher Walken was hard to take your eyes off.

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

Claire Danes, Fleishman is in Trouble

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Under the Banner of Heaven

Niecy Nash-Betts, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus

Will win and should win Jennifer Coolidge

Jennifer Coolidge, in all her glorious chaos, is having a moment. And her performance in the finale of The White Lotus season two generated instant, and never-ending, memes. The biggest competition she has in this category is her own co-star, Aubrey Plaza, who played the series’ scorned ice queen.

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Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks

Julia Garner, Ozark

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

Will Win and Should Win Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

Abbott Elementary is one of the few big hits to be broadcast on traditional TV in the US – meaning not on cable or a streaming service – so it’d make sense for the Globes to send awards its way. Of the two scene-stealers here, Sheryl Lee Ralph takes the edge just as the veteran star has been overlooked for so long.

Taron Egerton, Black Bird

Colin Firth, The Staircase

Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven

Evan Peters, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Sebastian Stan, Pam and Tommy

Will win Evan Peters

Should win Taron Egerton

While Peters certainly invested a lot in his portrayal of Dahmer – he even wore the serial killer and sex offender’s real clothes – that whole show just felt a bit, well, icky. Besides, Egerton was one of the best in the true-crime genre this past year with his role as former drug dealer turned undercover agent Jimmy Keene.

Jessica Chastain, George and Tammy

Julia Garner, Inventing Anna

Lily James, Pam and Tommy

Julia Roberts, Gaslit

Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

Will win Julia Garner

Should win Amanda Seyfried

Seyfried’s strange, frazzled performance as disgraced entrepreneur Elizabeth Holmes was spot-on. There was a lot of hype about Julia Garner’s work in Ozark though, so she has some strong competition there.