Californians know how much power they have in Super Tuesday — and it looks like they’re feeling the Bern

Fourteen states are voting today, but all eyes are on California. That’s because we carry 415 out of the 1,357 — or 30 per cent — of the Super Tuesday delegates. California also moved its primary up from June to February, which means Californians will for the first time play a pivotal role in deciding whether Bernie Sanders, the current frontrunner, or establishment favorite Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate for president.

The stakes are high, not least because California has been highly critical of President Trump. And the feeling is mutual. Trump sued the state of California over sanctuary laws that protected undocumented immigrants in 2018 — and California has sued the President over 50 times in the last four years. To put that into context: Texas, well-known for legislators who opposed President Obama’s policies, sued the former president 48 times in eight years.

Until last week, nothing about my daily commute between South Los Angeles and Beverly Hills reflected how important the presidential race was. I saw little, if any, indication that Angelinos — most of whom are Democrats — wanted to even talk about the presidential race publicly. Most of the garden signs on display were for local candidates, or “Any Functioning Adult 2020”. Let’s not forget we’ve been subjected to a long primary season that features over 20 Democratic hopefuls duking it out in the press, through political ads and awkward TV debates (not to mention the Iowa caucus debacle).

From my vantage point, Angelinos and Californians at large were more concerned with pressing regional issues, like immigration, public education, law and order or the growing homelessness crisis. The latter was a topic that our Governor, Gavin Newsom, devoted his whole State of the State address on earlier this year.

As it turns out, looks can be deceiving. People weren’t checking out, they were checking in; what I was picking up on wasn’t inertia, but anxiety. I spoke with Alex Cohen, an Anchor for Spectrum News 1 on the eve of the South Carolina primary. She told me, “A lot of the folks I've talked to [in California] still don't know how they're going to vote. I think that that is really making people feel a little bit edgy. I've talked to a lot of folks who are waiting to see what happens [in South Carolina].”

We now know, of course, that Joe Biden won that primary. With endorsements from Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, his campaign is gaining momentum, something that Democratic Party brass is probably thankful for. I suspect some Democratic voters are feeling a sense of relief too for other reasons; they’re a step closer to having a candidate they can rally behind.

Going by voter registration figures, Californian Democrats are motivated, but that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for Joe Biden, says Lawrence Ross, of The Metaphor Club, a co-working space in Leimert Park, a gentrifying and traditionally African American neighbourhood in Los Angeles: “For older black folks, Biden has a solid lead. Younger black folks really do support [Sanders] — and some who are older really don't.” Between this, and the fact that Sanders appears to be more popular with Latinos, who could make up 30 per cent of California’s voters, there is a strong chance California will go to Bernie.

Ross (who supports Elizabeth Warren) says “the main driving force amongst minorities is to get rid of Trump.” He adds that in the end, Californian Democrats will “vote blue, no matter who.”

Only time will tell if Democrats will succeed in ejecting Trump. He may not be popular with many Californians, but the few friends he does have in this state are powerful. I was reminded of this on February 18, the day he flew into Los Angeles to attend a fundraiser in Beverly Hills, which is about six miles away from Leimert Park. That morning, as I walked my kid to school, I spotted a parent volunteer wearing a red “Trump 2020” cap. I was caught off guard, because parents at this diverse school rarely talk politics at all.

I didn’t give it another thought until a few days later, while talking to another parent called Dave Colan. He reminded me about Trump’s powerful friends, saying, “Even if the percentage of Trump voters is very low, I think the dollars are very high compared to every other region of the country. So you might have more Trump supporters per capita in Oklahoma, but you have more dollars per Trump supporter in Beverly Hills.”

Dollars versus number of voters: that’s a sobering problem for Democratic supporters, for sure. I’m not sure if it will take money or people to win the 2020 presidential election. But I do know that no matter who wins the Democratic primary, and no matter what side of the aisle you’re on, it’s going to be a bruising presidential race.