Football: Danger signals on road to Rome

It is simple enough; by avoiding defeat against Italy in Rome on 11 October, England will qualify for the World Cup finals in France next summer. Unfortunately, a problem can arise if simple is confused with easy. Lest we forget, England went to Holland four years ago knowing that a draw would all but send them to USA 94.

The reaction in some quarters to the 4-0 defeat of Moldova last week, coupled with Italy's 0-0 draw in Georgia, has bordered on the amnesiac. It was a night when dignified reverence for Princess Diana turned into jeering and sneering at the Sports Minister before Wembley seemed to settle for uncritical triumphalism, ignoring much of the patchiness with which it had been presented.

Glenn Hoddle himself has admitted that England remain some way behind the elite of the world game, Brazil, Germany, Argentina and, yes, possibly Italy. When asked if England could win the World Cup, he declined the chance that Sir Alf Ramsey had once taken - "most certainly, I think England will win the World Cup" - and settled for a half-Churchillian response. "Give me my experienced players, give me my best team and possibly... possibly..."

Such reverie was interrupted, as it surely should be, by the task in hand. On Friday morning, Hoddle was at his desk at FA headquarters to watch the video, filmed from a camera behind the goal that took in the whole pitch of his team's game, as well as considering a report from his representative in Georgia, the former Everton manager Joe Royle.

In his understated and determined way, Hoddle has always been realistic but nevertheless quietly optimistic about going to Rome. It stems from last February and England's 1-0 defeat at Wembley, with the subsequent lessons learnt and implemented in the 2-0 win at Le Tournoi de France.

"I left them after the defeat with a positive vibe in the dressing-room," says Hoddle. "I told them there was nothing to be ashamed of, losing to a team of that quality. I told them that we could still win the group, that we had not blown it and did not have to settle for the play-offs. Italy were at full-strength that night. We weren't. We were missing the spine of our team, with no Seaman, Adams, Gascoigne, and Alan Shearer only 60 per cent fit."

What England learned, Hoddle believes, was the concentration required at the highest level as Gianfranco Zola nipped in for the decisive goal. "We had to take on board when to play with a sweeper and when to be zonal in defence. We were in a zone when we should have been dropping off. We went to sleep a little. You have only got to get yourself out of position for a second and they will punish you. That's the difference from League football. Now, I think we can sort those situations out."

Experience will be the issue come 7.45pm in three Saturdays time, Hoddle insists, even if he says he has a "lovely dilemma" with so many young players at present distinguishing themselves. Tony Adams is likely to return to the defence, along with Graeme Le Saux to wing-back, and the end of Paul Ince's suspension will be welcome. David Batty, after an assured performance last week, can expect to retain his place.

In Shearer's absence, Ian Wright has made himself an automatic selection with his two goals and unselfish running while Paul Gascoigne has ended, temporarily at least, the debate that followed his summer performance against Brazil about whether he slows the side down.

"He came to the squad very fit," said Hoddle. "With Paul, there needs to be a continuity. He can't keep going from one extreme to another. He needs to have balance in his life and his play. I think he's beginning to appreciate that a team needs a bit of shape. It may be a strange thing to say at 30 years of age but he has always played off the cuff and now perhaps the penny has dropped and he can see what all his coaches have been trying to tell him, that there is another side to the game." With a burst of skill here and a defence- splitting pass there, the quick- footed Gascoigne revealed why such a fuss is still made about him. Quite simply, England do not have any other such player capable of both running with the ball at defences and of picking holes in them.

It helped, of course, that the defence in which he picked holes spent most of its time ball-watching and that its goalkeeper had not yet learned to stand up to an oncoming attacker. Nevertheless, Gascoigne's stamina was impressive. As Wright scored England's fourth in the last minute, it was Gascoigne up alongside in support.

Hoddle insists that Gascoigne has modified what Graham Taylor identified as his refuelling problems. If the true test for England comes in Rome, for Gascoigne it will come in his reaction to last Wednesday and in the weeks leading up to the Italy match.

Can he retain his restrained low profile after such a heady night; can he remain as disciplined off the field as well as on? We know now that in footballing terms he can still kick it, but otherwise? Hoddle said that after so much guidance, it was something for which he had to take responsibility alone. "You can only lead a horse to water," Hoddle said without finishing the sentence. In this case it involves making the animal not drink.

That England's victory was so comfortable owed much to Gascoigne's individualism and Moldova's ineptitude. Otherwise Hoddle's team selection and tactics did not seem especially clear. A lack of width was a problem. In came Les Ferdinand for his aerial ability, yet where was the specialist crosser in the team, until Stuart Ripley's belated, ill-fated run-out on the right? From the other flank came little. Was it in deference to Gazza and his club that there was no left-footer in the team?

Hoddle seems certain in his own mind for the next time. A 4-4-2 formation may have suited Wednesday's purposes but for Rome it will be back to wing- backs. He will know, too, how different the task. "In bigger games he needs to chip in defensively," said Hoddle of Gascoigne, to illustrate the change of approach.

Wounded, the Italians' machismo has been insulted and how dangerous they are when needing to win a game. One thinks of the World Cup finals of 1994 when they beat Norway 1-0 with only 10 men to emerge from their group. In addition, they will surely be better prepared in a month's time. Serie A started the season almost a month after the Premiership. Easy? A draw in Italy has proved beyond many talented England teams from previous eras; indeed the national side have lost on their last four visits.

Hoddle's teams, with their comfort in containing and counter- attacking away from home, should not be unduly intimidated, however. Unlike England of 1993, this team will go to Rome with confidence and self-esteem high.

"It's not as daunting playing away as it used to be," said the coach. "I think it's the same in the Premiership. It's the way the modern game has gone. Provided you weather the early storm and don't concede an early goal, you can play them on the break. Denmark won the European Championship like that in 1992." Simple, really.