Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Coronavirus: Millions could be plunged into poverty across Asia, warns World Bank

Region’s economy facing sharpest downturn since devastating currency crisis more than two decades ago

Samuel Lovett
Tuesday 31 March 2020 03:37 EDT
Comments
Countries must isolate, test, treat and trace to reduce coronavirus epidemics, says WHO

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to significantly slow economic growth in China and East Asia, potentially plunging millions into poverty, the World Bank has warned.

Under a worst-case scenario, the region could suffer its sharpest downturn since a devastating currency crisis more than two decades ago, the bank said in a forecast released on Monday.

This would see the East Asian-Pacific economy contract by 0.5 per cent in 2020 and poverty – defined as an income of £4.45 a day – increase by 11 million people.

Such an estimate marks a stark contrast to the World Bank’s initial forecast that economic growth would be sufficient to lift 35 million people out of poverty this year, including 25 million in China alone.

The ‘baseline’ forecast predicts growth in the region would slow to 2.1 per cent for the rest of the year, down from 5.8 per cent in 2019, with a degree of economic recovery set to take hold in the summer.

Asia faces an unusual combination of “disruptive and mutually reinforcing events,” the report said. “Significant economic pain seems unavoidable in all countries.”

Countries in the region should invest in cross-border, public-private medical partnerships and take targeted fiscal measures, such as providing subsidies for sick pay and healthcare, to mitigate some of the immediate impacts of the pandemic, the World Bank said.

Governments should also ease credit to help households smooth their consumption and help firms survive the initial shock of the outbreak.

“The good news is that the region has strengths it can tap, but countries will have to act fast and at a scale not previously imagined,” said Victoria Kwakwa, vice president for East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank.

A slowdown of the size being projected by the organisation for such a critical part of the global economy would have severe effects for the rest of the world.

The World Bank said it had not finished forecasts for other regions, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned it is clear the global economy had already entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the slump following the 2008 financial crisis.

“In addition to bold national actions, deeper international cooperation is the most effective vaccine against this virulent threat,” said Aaditya Mattoo, chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank.

The World Bank has pledged to provide £10.73 billion in financial support through a fast-track package to strengthen the response of developing countries to the virus, and expects to deploy up £122.64 billion over the next 15 months to protect the poor and vulnerable.

If needed, the IMF has said it will commit its full £800 billion in lending resources to support nations hit by the virus.

Additional reporting by agencies

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in