Michael Bloomberg is the real unknown when it comes to Super Tuesday

This is where it starts to get really serious. More than a dozen states are set to go to the polls on “Super Tuesday” including California and Texas. It was where more than a third of the delegates of the whole nomination process are up for grabs.

To put that in perspective, in the four states we have had during the contest so far – Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina – there were 155 delegates up for grabs. Bernie Sanders currently leads with 58. On “Super Tuesday” there are 1,357 delegates, with each candidate needing 1,991 in total to win the nomination. So nobody is able to declare victory on Tuesday, but it will have a significant impact on the race.

While Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – following his big win in South Carolina – are looking best placed to make the nomination process a two-horse race, the real unknown element is Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg, a former New York mayor, has kept himself off the ballot until now, spending a chunk of his billionaire fortune on TV adverts and events to build up support. The gamble is whether he will make a splash on 3 March.

Last weekend, Bloomberg’s campaign started a massive mobilisation drive which will include more than 2,400 events in 30 states ahead of “Super Tuesday”. The aim being to show the scale of his nationwide operation and let his opponents know that he will be strong coming out of the latest primaries too if the vote goes his way. Having spent more than $500m (£390m) of his own money so far during the campaign – amounting to about $5m a day – it is clear that he means business.

But name recognition and blanket TV adverts can only go so far, and Bloomberg’s rivals will hope that his relatively weak performance during the last two Democrat debates – when Elizabeth Warren in particular landed some heavy blows to the former mayor’s credibility – will be what voters remember.

Bloomberg is sitting in third or four place in the majority of the polls in the big states of Texas and California. Sometimes close to Biden, but behind both him and Sanders – and holding his own against other moderate candidates like Warren. Candidates need to get 15 per cent of the vote in a state to qualify for delegates and Bloomberg is hovering around that in a number of states.

Sanders will be confident of his position and Biden will know he has to perform well on Super Tuesday without losing too many votes to the also-moderate Bloomberg. Candidates like Warren and Amy Klobuchar will all be hoping that Bloomberg does not take away their support either.