Why Boris Johnson should follow Keir Starmer’s example and sack Robert Jenrick

By all accounts Boris Johnson has always taken a fairly cavalier attitude to money, whether his own or other people’s. The same might be said about his own stock of political capital. To the prime minister it is there to be used, not hoarded. The immediate question is whether he has sufficient left to get through any more debacles in the coronavirus, and, less explicable, hang on to the secretary of state for housing, communities and local government, Robert Jenrick.

Johnson started the year with a great deal of political goodwill in the bank. He had, after all, somehow managed to inveigle the opposition parties into granting him an early general election. He won it, with an 80-plus seat Commons majority, the largest since 1987. He surpassed the electoral achievements of Theresa May, David Cameron, Michael Howard, Iain Duncan Smith, William Hague and John Major. The Conservatives demolished Labour’s so called red wall in the north and Midlands. For the first time more low-income voters chose the Conservatives rather than Labour.

Having run a populist, presidential-style campaign Johnson took his personal mandate and did indeed “get Brexit done”, at least formally and partially. He thus, to Tory eyes, delivered on his “Dude” leadership campaign pledges of about a year ago – to Deliver Brexit; Unite the country; Defeat Jeremy Corbyn and Energise Britain, though of course the second and that last one are rather debatable. At the end of January as Britain left the EU, he stood as the undisputed leader of his party, with no rivals visible and basking in the adoration if his fan-base, divisive though he is.

Since then, through a series of events out of his control, mistakes, misjudgements and plain blundering he has spent much of his political capital. The majority of it went on saving Dominic Cummings, who sparked an open revolt among Tory MPs rarely seen. Johnson’s poll ratings and those of his party collapsed. A run of poor decisions, such as the levy on foreign NHS workers and free school meals failed to “read the room” and were followed by embarrassing U-turns. Suddenly Keir Starmer found his greatest asset was the prime minister himself. Even allowing for a very serious illness with Covid-19, these have been disappointing months. The backbench 1922 committee have been concerned about lack of grip. There is disquiet. Gossip about wunderkind Rishi Sunak’s chances of rescuing the government has grown.

Johnson would, then, probably be wise to cut his losses and dump Jenrick at some advantageous moment in the news cycle. There seems little point to stubbornly cling to an over-promoted amateur with poor judgement (which is not a joke about Johnson), when the PM has precious little goodwill left to draw upon. Jenrick lacks any power base in the party. The Tories should be ruthless.

Johnson should also be aware that prime ministers who have won famous victories and formidable parliamentary majorities have often seen their political capital run out to the point of insolvency. Indeed it is surprisingly common in political history: Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher won their hat tricks in 1987 and 2005 respectively, and their own MOs has driven them out within a few years. The two Harolds, Macmillan for the Tories (1959) and Wilson for Labour (1966) enjoyed majorities of around 100 but they too failed to survive (Macmillan partly through ill-health, Wilson at subsequent general election). Clement Attlee’s 1945 Labour landslide, when the Tories looked finished for a generation, was gone in six years. None of them had to cope with a global pandemic, true, and they made their mistakes, but they would all have instinctively known what to do about Jenrick. Johnson should follow Keir Starmer’s decisive example and sack him.