Confusion reigns for the Democrats as Ukraine looms over everything

Democrats in the US House of Representatives would have hoped that the planned retreat in Philadelphia in recent days would have been a chance to solidify their message for the electorate – instead, they arrived having been able to push through a much-needed spending bill, but having jettisoned a White House-negotiated Covid relief package.

Once again, party divisions and anxieties were exposed despite many trying to put a positive spin on things as the retreat kicked off in earnest. Speaking to those gathered on Friday, president Joe Biden made clear what was at stake if Democrats failed to sufficiently pull together. “This may be the most important off-year election in modern history,” said Biden. If Democrats lose their majorities in the House and the Senate in November’s midterm elections, he said, “the only thing I’ll have then is a veto pen”.

But clarity over the way forward is proving difficult to create. While Biden has seen a bump in his poll numbers over the US response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, such success is unlikely to provide the same kind of bump to those fighting individual races for Congress – where the domestic agenda will carry greater weight. Indeed, raising prices for those filling up their cars at the pump thanks to the crisis is already being used as a wedge issue by Republicans.

The leading Democrat in the House, speaker Nancy Pelosi, talked up the aid for Ukraine contained in the new spending bill, but also faced questions about whether the invasion and the response required was actually putting a spanner in election plans for the Democrats.

“No, we don’t stop what we need to do for America’s working families,” she told NBC News. “We have to be strong, and as the president has clearly prioritised, we need to meet the needs of the American people. And at the same time, we can honour our responsibilities to peace in the world and helping all we can.”

Some on the left wing of the party have suggested that Democrats need more legislative wins in Congress ahead of November if they are to convince voters that Democrats deserve their majorities in the House and (just) in the Senate. But that notion has been rejected by the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, of New York. He has said that while getting more legislation through Congress would be good, voters will judge them on “whether they think we’re preachy or empathetic” and “whether they think we have the right priorities”.

What is clear is that these questions are not going to go away in the months ahead. And the Republicans will be waiting to jump upon any perceived weakness.