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Australian Open betting tips:
- Iga Swiatek to win Australian Open - 2pts @ 5/2 with BoyleSports
- Swiatek to win the tournament without dropping a set - 0.5pt @ 16/1 with bet365
- Amanda Anisimova to beat Liudmila Samsonova - 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor
The first Grand Slam tournament of the year gets underway in Melbourne Park on Sunday with Aryna Sabalenka defending her Australian Open title.
Sabalenka was comprehensively beaten by 2023 runner-up Elena Rybakina in last week’s Brisbane final, and the majority of tennis betting sites can't split the pair in their ante-post market.
Heading the Australian Open odds is world number one Iga Swiatek whose best showing was reaching the semi-finals in 2022.
The Pole takes a 16-match win streak to Melbourne and has added power to her serve in the off-season, as well as showing greater attacking intent on faster surfaces.
Coco Gauff, who won her first Slam title last September at the US Open, is fourth on online betting sites for the first major of 2024 having retained her Auckland title last weekend.
Rybakina was the only one of the big four not to take the week off before the Australian Open. Having been largely in cruise control in Brisbane, the 2022 Wimbledon champion found life more difficult in Adelaide and won just six games in her quarter-final against Ekaterina Alexandrova.
That exit has seen her price go out to 6/1 with BoyleSports, and she could have been handed an easier opener than a serving battle with former finalist Karolina Pliskova.
Swiatek favourite with good reason
The bookmakers expect the semi-finals to be contested between Swiatek and Rybakina plus Gauff and Sabalenka.
While Rybakina and Sabalenka contested last year’s final, Swiatek and Gauff have certainly improved since then. And the expected slower conditions at Melbourne Park, compared to Brisbane or Adelaide, should also help the latter-mentioned two.
With Swiatek avenging her Cincinnati defeat to Gauff - her first reverse in eight meetings - at the WTA Finals in Cancun before sweeping aside Sabalenka, she is the player to beat.
Her draw should pose few problems until the latter stages, and the world’s top-ranked player is a confident selection to win her first Australian Open at 5/2 with BoyleSports.
Tip: Iga Swiatek to win Australian Open - 2pts @ 5/2 with BoyleSports
Alternative ways to bet on Swiatek
With Swiatek our main outright pick, normally we would look at someone at a bigger price from the bottom half of the draw for an each-way punt.
But it’s hard to see anyone outside of Gauff or Sabalenka coming through with Ons Jabeur yet to make her competitive debut in 2024.
Mirra Andreeva is surely a future Slam winner and capable of going deep here, but she would probably need to beat both Sabalenka and Gauff to reach the final and that looks beyond her at this stage.
Instead, we have found what might be a value bet with bet365 offering 16/1 that Swiatek wins the tournament without losing a set.
Since October in Beijing, she has dropped just the one against Garcia at the United Cup. Only her big rivals look capable of giving her a match and that would be at the business end of the tournament.
With Rybakina and Sabalenka looking slightly vulnerable, and Gauff seemingly unable to live with the Pole at her best, it might be worth a small punt.
Tip: Swiatek to win the tournament without dropping a set - 0.5pt @ 16/1 with bet365
Women’s Australian Open outsiders
Outside of the big four, Jessica Pegula is also in Adelaide after her surprise defeat to Britain’s Katie Boulter at the United Cup.
The American has looked far from convincing at the start of the season and had to come from behind against both Bernarda Pera and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to reach the semi-finals in Adelaide.
Two-time champion Naomi Osaka makes her return to Grand Slam action after childbirth. On her return in Brisbane, she fell at the second hurdle to Pliskova. And she has landed a tough opener in Melbourne against another strong server in Caroline Garcia.
With the winner likely to face Gauff in round four, this might be too soon for the Japanese to have a deep run in a Slam.
Two other former champions, Angelique Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki, are also back in Melbourne after baby breaks. Kerber and Alexander Zverev lifted the United Cup for Germany earlier this month, but the left-hander won just one singles match out of five and has a tough opener against Danielle Collins with Swiatek probably awaiting the winner.
After losing her first-round clash in Auckland to Elina Svitolina, Wozniacki meets last year’s surprise package Magda Linette.
Also returning to Slam action is Emma Raducanu who, like Wozniacki, fell to Svitolina in New Zealand. Britain’s 2021 US Open champion came through a long encounter with Romania’s Gabriela Ruse in her first match for over eight months and still looks some way short of match fitness. She will do well to get past Shelby Rogers in her first-round match.
Another player on the comeback trail is former French Open semi-finalist Amanda Anisimova who took a mental health break last summer.
The American showed spark in her opening win over Pavlyuchenkova in Brisbane, but took just one game off Marie Bouzkova in round two.
Anisimova has been drawn in the first round against Liudmila Samsonova who is yet to win in 2024 after defeats to teenage sensation Andreeva and German veteran Laura Siegemund.
With the big-serving Russian struggling to get going this season, Anisimova looks a big price on betting apps at 2/1 to make it into round two.
Tip: Amanda Anisimova to beat Liudmila Samsonova - 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
