Golf betting tips: BMW Championship preview with predictions and best odds

BMW Championship betting tips:

• Rory McIlroy to win - 7/1 with Unibet
• Jon Rahm top five finish - 15/8 with William Hill
• Tommy Fleetwood to win e/w - 20/1 with Parimatch

UK betting sites have shifted their odds in favour of Rory McIlroy winning the BMW Championship this weekend following his near-miss at the FedEx St Jude Championship last time out.

The world’s top golfers are battling for points to secure their place in the Tour Championship and the BMW Championship is the final chance to nail a spot at the end of the month.

There’s $20 million in prize money up for grabs here and bookmakers have edged away from world No 1 Scottie Scheffler following his disappointing round at TPC Southwind.

Thursday sees McIlroy and co. tee off at Olympia Fields and we could be in for a fourth BMW Championship play-off in six years. That’s how tight the competition is right now as the PGA season reaches its zenith.

UK bookmakers usually don’t stray far from McIlroy even though his success rate in recent years has been less than convincing. However, they appear to be backing the Northern Irishman to shine as he seeks his first BMW Championship victory since 2012. 

Jon Rahm is also tipped to challenge here after he won at Olympia Fields in 2020. Rahm is top of the FedEx Cup standings heading into the competition and has the golfing nous to avoid the obvious traps set out on this course.

Below, we have provided analysis on our three tips to consider betting on.

Golf tips: Back Rory McIlroy to win BMW Championship

McIlroy’s strong run of form over the summer has led him to nudge ahead of Scheffler into favouritism with the bookies here. 

Unibet have him at 7/1 to win the BMW Championship and there is good cause for optimism on that.

McIlroy has finished tied-ninth or better in each of his last eight events. He also knows this course well after sharing the lead for a stint during the 2020 BMW Championship.

He missed out on a play-off finish at TPC Southwind, shooting an impressive -14 over the four days to finish tied third. 

Reflecting on that finish, McIlroy said he was feeling good “from tee to green”. When he’s on form there are few that can stop him and bookmakers are bracing themselves for another McIlroy charge this weekend.

Tip: Rory McIlroy to win - 7/1 with Unibet

Back Jon Rahm top five finish

Rahm won the BMW Championship here in 2020 and heads into the tournament as the FedEx Cup leader. 

He’ll want to keep that advantage and carry a lead into the Tour Championship but will need to finish above Scheffler. 

A top five finish is certainly within Rahm’s power and William Hill have him at 15/8 to do just that.

Rahm bombed at the St Jude Championship but finished a credible T2 at The Open last month. The Spaniard is not a flair golfer but Olympia Fields rewards those who keep their head and shoot on point.

Rahm is behind Scheffler at 9/1 to win the whole thing and a sustained challenge on the lead isn’t out of the question. We’ll likely know of his chances of success by Friday and a top-five finish makes more sense for bettors heading into the competition.

Tip: Jon Rahm top five finish - 15/8 with William Hill

Back Tommy Fleetwood as an outside pick

Golf betting punters seeking wider odds heading into the BMW Championship should look no further than Tommy Fleetwood. 

The Englishman has finished in the top 10 in five of his last six tournaments. That includes T3 at the St Jude’s, T5 at the US Open and second following a play-off defeat to Nick Taylor at the Canadian Open.

Fleetwood, like McIlroy, has found his groove this summer – he just needs a trophy to cap it all off. The 32-year-old is yet to win a PGA Tour title and that is what often puts bettors off.

However, at odds of 20/1 there aren’t many better outsiders to back here. Fleetwood’s one shortfall in recent weeks has been efficiency on the green. It cost him against Taylor and, perhaps, it will do for him again at Olympia Fields. 

We know how good he is at approach play, but all eyes will be on his putting. 

Tip: Tommy Fleetwood to win e/w - 20/1 with Parimatch

Should you wish to take any of our betting advice on the BMW Championship, be sure to check out what free bets are available to claim before placing your stake.