Manchester City vs Aston Villa betting tips: Premier League predictions, football odds and free bets

Manchester City vs Aston Villa predictions

• Man City to win by one goal – 10/3 bet365 
• Rodri over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 BetMGM 
• Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 19/20 Unibet

Manchester City's title credentials will be put to the test once more when they host fourth-placed Aston Villa on Wednesday at the Etihad Stadium (8.15pm, TNT Sports 1). 

The reigning champions find themselves three points behind leaders Liverpool at the top of the Premier League following their draw with Arsenal on Sunday.  

The result has altered the balance of power in the race for the crown in the minds of online bookmakers, who have moved the Reds into 5/4 favourites in the Premier League odds to lift the title.

But City are champions for a reason and will not relinquish their dream of a fourth straight title without a fight. Pep Guardiola’s men are unbeaten in all competitions since losing to Villa in early December and boast a formidable unbeaten home record that stretches back to November 2022. 

Unai Emery’s men have the chance to throw a huge wrench in City’s title bid and strengthen their own standing to finish in the top four. Villa defeated Midlands rivals Wolves 2-0 last time out and are unbeaten in five on the road entering the game. 

City are overwhelming favourites with football betting sites, and you can get a huge 9/1 price for Villa to snatch the win on the road, albeit without star forward Ollie Watkins.  

Man City vs Aston Villa tip: Champs to edge out Villa 

Sunday’s draw with Arsenal was symptomatic of City’s performances over the last two months in the Premier League. 

Those issues looked to have abated with a 3-1 win over Manchester United in the Manchester Derby, but even that took a second-half comeback for Guardiola’s men to walk away with the three points.  

Erling Haaland still tops the goal charts, but he has been far from the player he was last season, adding another glaring miss to his recent collection against Arsenal. It’s not panic stations yet and a win over Villa would move City level on points with Liverpool at the Premier League summit.  

But, their lack of cutting edge is leaving them vulnerable to dropping points, particularly against the stronger outfits in the league. Arsenal could have had a snatch and grab, while Liverpool should have beaten City at Anfield. 

A Villa team unbeaten in five league games on the road and that recorded a 1-0 win over the Cityzens earlier this season will pose a test.

Emery’s men have been dealt a blow that Watkins will be sidelined with a hamstring injury. Jhon Duran replaced him at half-time in the win over Wolves and is primed to start at the Etihad Stadium. City have injury issues of their own with Kyle Walker, Ederson and Nathan Ake all sidelined.  

This has all the hallmarks of another tight showdown as Emery proved that he and his Villa team could limit City’s attacking prowess. Guardiola will also be wary of their speed on the counter through Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey.  

We’re expecting another methodical game that could emulate City’s draw with Arsenal. On this occasion though, we’re backing the hosts to find a decisive effort to win by a one goal margin at 10/3 with bet365. 

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Tip 1: Man City to win by one goal – 10/3 bet365

Rodri can be City's talisman

Haaland has not been the Haaland of last season for City in the final third, and perhaps more so in the Premier League since his return from injury. In nine Premier League appearances following his comeback, Haaland has netted four goals.  

A decent return from your standard top-flight striker, but not the great Norwegian and it will be a concern for Guardiola given the stakes in the stretch run of the campaign. Haaland has missed a few glaring openings in front of goal that he would have gobbled up last season. 

It has affected City’s ability to kill off teams in the final third.  

Phil Foden has become a vital contributor with goals and assists, while Bernardo Silva highlighted his value in the FA Cup. In big games, one player has risen to the occasion more than most.

Rodri is synonymous with handing City control of matches with his precise distribution and ball-winning ability in the middle of the park.  

But, the Spaniard also has a keen eye for goal in the clutch, none more so than his Champions League final winner against Inter. It has carried on this season with important strikes against Chelsea and Sheffield Untied to earn his team points. 

Betting apps price up Rodri at 5/1 to score any time against Villa, while that could be a possibility we like the safer approach for him to record one shot on target at 11/10 with BetMGM. 

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Tip 2: Rodri over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 BetMGM

Yellow peril for Villans

Only Chelsea and Sheffield United have accrued more yellow cards than Aston Villa in the Premier League this season. 

Emery’s men are making ground on the two clubs, adding another three to their total in the 2-0 win over Wolves last time out. Their record on the road is particularly illuminating for our final prediction. 

In seven out of their last nine away Premier League games, Villa have collected three or more cards. The exceptions were their stroll to victory over Sheffield United and a win over Fulham.

We expect Villa to be a lot more combative in their approach even without the suspended John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara, missing out through injury.  

Those two players have combined for 15 of Villa’s 79 yellow cards this term, but Youri Tielemans stepped into the midfield and kept the cautions ticking over in their absence against Wolves. 

City have a lot of ball carriers that will need stopping such as Jack Grealish, Foden and Jeremy Doku. Taking one of the available card lines from betting sites, we’re backing Villa to collect over 2.5 cards at 19/20 with Unibet. 

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Tip 3: Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 19/20 Unibet

Manchester City vs Aston Villa predictions

• Man City to win by one goal – 10/3 bet365 
• Rodri over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 BetMGM 
• Aston Villa over 2.5 cards – 19/20 Unibet

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