Manchester City vs Arsenal predictions: Premier League tips, betting odds and free bets

Manchester City vs Arsenal predictions

• Arsenal/draw double chance – 1/1 with Unibet
• Bukayo Saka over 0.5 shots on target – 1/1 with bet365
• Bernando Silva to be shown a card – 16/5 with William Hill

Two of the Premier League’s title protagonists clash directly for the final time this season on Sunday with one of Manchester City or Arsenal having the chance to strike a decisive blow heading into the home stretch (4.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event). 

The Etihad Stadium will provide the stage for the latest instalment in what’s become an enthralling championship fight and football betting sites expect Pep Guardiola’s City side to seize the initiative with a win. 

City are odds-on with betting sites to record a ninth straight home win over the Gunners and maintain a 38-game unbeaten streak at the Etihad Stadium that stretches back to December 2022.

Arsenal came to Manchester last April for a title decider and were totally overwhelmed, losing 4-1, one of several heavy defeats they’ve suffered at the Etihad during the Guardiola era.

But they couldn’t be in better form for this latest visit, rattling off eight straight league wins to move to the top of the table on goal difference ahead of Liverpool with City just one point behind.

City are 5/4 favourites in the latest Premier League odds to win the title for a fourth season in a row with Mikel Arteta’s men the outsiders of the three contenders at 11/4. But a positive result for Arsenal could shift those perceptions and the visitors look well equipped for this Etihad exam.

Man City vs Arsenal tip: Go for Gunners to hold off champions

Arsenal’s defeat to City last season effectively ended the title race with the game played at the end of April and even though this match takes place a little further out from the finish, the fear will be for the Gunners that another loss could destabilise their championship push.

Arsenal were around 4/1 to win this fixture a year ago and while they’ve been shown a bit more respective by gambling sites this time around, they can still be found at 3/1 with some firms.

That’s despite the north Londoners having got the better of City twice since this season, beating them on penalties in the Community Shield and 1-0 in the league at the Emirates Stadium in October.

That victory, Arsenal’s first over City in 13 league meetings, was a big psychological boost and served to show Arteta may have the tools to challenge his former mentor. 

Declan Rice has been a huge signing for Arsenal, bringing dynamism to the midfield, while Kai Havertz’s addition last summer has made more sense the longer the season has gone on. Having William Saliba at centre back rather than Rob Holding, which was the case in this fixture last season, will make a difference too.

With those players in the team, they’ve exerted far more control in games and have been very solid. Arsenal are the proud owners of the lowest expected goals against figure (19.4) in the league, way ahead of City (27.6) and no side has allowed fewer shots on target than the Gunners.

Going forward, they’ve been scoring for fun, netting 33 goals in the last eight games to become the league’s leading scorers.

They’ve taken their game to a new level but may have to raise it once more for a meeting with a City team that’s won 19 of its last 22 games in all competitions since their last loss in December.

As usual, with the smell of silverware in the air, City are looking to move through the gears and repeat last season’s treble.

But they perhaps haven’t been as dominant as they were 12 months ago and were fortunate to avoid defeat to fellow title challengers Liverpool recently. 

Erling Haaland’s form reflects City’s slight dip. He still leads the league’s goalscoring charts with 18 goals, impressive given he’s had a few injury issues, but by the end of March last season he had 28 goals. 

Injuries are an issue for City too with Kevin De Bruyne and Ederson doubtful having recently sat out the international break, while Manuel Akanji, Kyle Walker and John Stones have returned from their national sides with problems.

Those injuries are setbacks but far from catastrophic when you have player of the year contenders Rodri and Phil Foden fit and firing, alongside Haaland, Bernando Silva and others.

They have enough to beat Arsenal, but whether they will is another matter and the Gunners are even-money to avoid defeat in Unibet’s double chance market. 

We’ve seen City drop points at home this season, more than Arsenal and Liverpool have done, and this could be the Gunners’ moment to dismiss suggestions they are also-rans in the title with a strong showing.

Man City vs Arsenal Tip 1: Arsenal/draw double chance – 1/1 with Unibet

Saka value to find his mark

Given how prolific Arsenal have been in front of goal recently and City having conceded in nine of their 14 home games this season, there are some interesting prices on betting apps for goal and shot-related markets as far as the Gunners are concerned.

In particular, the shots on target market catches the eye with bet365 making both Bukayo Saka and Havertz even-money to have one shot on target on Sunday.

No one has scored more league goals for Arsenal this season than those two and Havertz’s form recently has been excellent, scoring in his last four top flight matches, while also netting for Germany in the international break.

He’s the back-up option to Saka in this scenario should the Gunners’ top scorer miss this game. He pulled out of the England squad with a problem but all reports indicate he’ll start on Sunday. 

If it is made clear he is available his price to have a shot on target will drop. The 22-year-old has had 77 shots this season, way more than Martin Odegaard in second with 53 and has had a shot on target in six of Arsenal’s last eight away games.

Man City vs Arsenal Tip 2: Bukayo Saka over 0.5 shots on target – 1/1 with bet365

Yellow for Silva

Recent league fixtures between these two have got a little feisty with four or more cards shown in each of the last four meetings. 

That average is likely to be maintained by referee Anthony Taylor, who is third amongst top flight officials for yellows per game this season with 5.15.

Picking out contenders to receive a card isn’t all that easy given these two sides have the best disciplinary records in the league, but one man that does stand out is City’s Bernardo Silva.

Only Rodri (8) has collected more yellows than the Portuguese in the league this season and three of his seven cards have come in City’s last six top flight matches.

Silva and Arsenal don’t seem to get on either and across the last nine meetings between the teams, he’s been booked five times. 

He also received a card in both meetings with Liverpool this season and looks a prime candidate for a card in another title-defining clash.

Man City vs Arsenal Tip 3: Bernando Silva to be shown a card – 16/5 with William Hill

Free bet offers for Man City vs Arsenal

Established bookmakers and new betting sites are likely to roll out the offers for this massive top-flight game and punters seeking free bets for the match may be spoilt for choice.

BetMGM are currently giving new customers £40 in free bets when they open an account us the link below. Once registered, select the sports welome offer and then place a minimum £10 bet on a selection with odds of 1/1 (2.0) or greater.

Once the qualifying bet has settled, BetMGM will credit users with four £10 free bet tokens to use on football and horse racing.

As well as the sportsbook, BetMGM run one of the best online casino sites, featuring a huge selection of UK slots and other games.

If you do sign up for BetMGM, make sure to read the terms and conditions of the welcome offer, and if you have a bet this weekend, make sure to gamble responsibly.